Latest poll: Angus Reid, 5 days ago

2019 federal election

Held on 2019-10-21. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Conservative Party of Canada 34.3%
Liberal Party of Canada 33.1%
New Democratic Party 16.0%
Bloc Québécois 7.6%
Green Party of Canada 6.6%
People's Party of Canada 1.6%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Léger 2019-10-18 3 6 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 18.0% 16.0% +2.0 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 33.0% 34.3% -1.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 6.0% 6.6% -0.6 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 1.6% +0.4 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 8.0% 7.6% +0.4 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 33.0% 33.1% -0.1 percentage points
Abacus Data 2019-10-19 2 6 0.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 32.0% 34.3% -2.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 8.0% 6.6% +1.5 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 34.0% 33.1% +0.9 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 1.6% +0.4 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 8.0% 7.6% +0.4 percentage points
New Democratic Party 16.0% 16.0% 0.0 percentage points
Mainstreet Research 2019-10-20 1 6 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 18.3% 16.0% +2.3 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 32.2% 34.3% -2.1 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 31.6% 33.1% -1.5 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.8% 1.6% +1.2 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 6.1% 6.6% -0.5 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.9% 7.6% +0.3 percentage points
Ipsos 2019-10-19 2 6 1.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Party of Canada 31.0% 33.1% -2.1 percentage points
New Democratic Party 18.0% 16.0% +2.0 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 3.0% 1.6% +1.4 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 33.0% 34.3% -1.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.0% 7.6% -0.6 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 6.0% 6.6% -0.6 percentage points
Nanos Research 2019-10-20 1 6 1.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 20.8% 16.0% +4.8 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 32.5% 34.3% -1.8 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 31.7% 33.1% -1.4 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 6.0% 6.6% -0.6 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.2% 7.6% -0.4 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.5% 1.6% -0.1 percentage points
Research Co. 2019-10-20 1 6 1.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 31.0% 34.3% -3.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party 19.0% 16.0% +3.0 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 8.0% 6.6% +1.5 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 32.0% 33.1% -1.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.0% 7.6% -0.6 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 1.6% +0.4 percentage points
Innovative Research 2019-10-17 4 6 1.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 31.0% 34.3% -3.3 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 4.0% 1.6% +2.4 percentage points
New Democratic Party 14.0% 16.0% -2.0 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 8.0% 6.6% +1.5 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 9.0% 7.6% +1.4 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 33.0% 33.1% -0.1 percentage points
Campaign Research 2019-10-20 1 6 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 31.3% 34.3% -3.0 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 9.1% 6.6% +2.6 percentage points
New Democratic Party 17.8% 16.0% +1.8 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 31.4% 33.1% -1.7 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.7% 1.6% +1.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.6% 7.6% -1.0 percentage points
Angus Reid 2019-10-15 6 6 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Party of Canada 29.0% 33.1% -4.1 percentage points
New Democratic Party 19.0% 16.0% +3.0 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 8.0% 6.6% +1.5 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 3.0% 1.6% +1.4 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 33.0% 34.3% -1.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 8.0% 7.6% +0.4 percentage points
DART/Maru 2019-10-16 5 6 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 21.0% 16.0% +5.0 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 29.0% 33.1% -4.1 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 33.0% 34.3% -1.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 7.0% 6.6% +0.5 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 1.6% +0.4 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 8.0% 7.6% +0.4 percentage points
Forum Research 2019-10-18 3 6 2.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 29.9% 34.3% -4.4 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 8.3% 6.6% +1.8 percentage points
New Democratic Party 17.5% 16.0% +1.5 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 31.7% 33.1% -1.4 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 3.0% 1.6% +1.4 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 9.0% 7.6% +1.4 percentage points
EKOS 2019-10-20 1 6 2.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 30.0% 34.3% -4.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 5.0% 7.6% -2.6 percentage points
New Democratic Party 18.3% 16.0% +2.3 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 3.5% 1.6% +1.9 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 8.1% 6.6% +1.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 34.2% 33.1% +1.1 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.