Polls from Abacus Data
Abacus Data has been polling since 2010 and has published 252 polls so far; the latest was on October 21, 2026.
Parties
| Pollster | Share (%) | Date |
|---|---|---|
| LPC | 48.0% | 2026-10-21 |
| CPC | 32.0% | 2026-10-21 |
| NDP | 9.0% | 2026-10-21 |
| BQ | 6.0% | 2026-10-21 |
| GPC | 3.0% | 2026-10-21 |
| PPC | 1.0% | 2026-10-21 |
Coalitions
No polls available yet.
Accuracy at past elections
Average error 1.8 percentage points across 5 elections.
Systematic over- and understatement, per party
Mean signed difference between this pollster’s final poll and the result. A positive figure means the party was stated higher than it finished.
| Party | Mean difference | Elections |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party of Canada | -2.4 percentage points | 5 |
| New Democratic Party | +2.1 percentage points | 5 |
| Conservative Party of Canada | -1.6 percentage points | 5 |
| Green Party of Canada | +1.5 percentage points | 5 |
| People's Party of Canada | +1.2 percentage points | 3 |
| Bloc Québécois | -0.1 percentage points | 5 |
Per election
| Election | Final poll | Days before | Parties scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 federal election | 2025-04-27 | 1 | 6 | 1.9 percentage points |
| 2021 federal election | 2021-09-19 | 1 | 6 | 1.3 percentage points |
| 2019 federal election | 2019-10-19 | 2 | 6 | 0.9 percentage points |
| 2015 federal election | 2015-10-06 | 13 | 5 | 3.0 percentage points |
| 2011 federal election | 2011-04-29 | 3 | 5 | 1.8 percentage points |
How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.
Latest updates
- allpollscanada.com #Poll Abacus Data (vs previous poll): UP ⬆️ 2.0 points: LPC 48.0% DOWN ⬇️ 2.0 points: CPC 32.0% ⬇️ 1.0 points: BQ 6.0% UNCHANGED ➡️ NDP 9.0%,GPC 3.0%,PPC 1.0% https://www.allpollscanada.com/pollster/abacus-data?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ca&utm_content=ca-512 view post
- allpollscanada.com #Poll Abacus Data (vs previous poll): UP ⬆️ 1.0 points: GPC 3.0% UNCHANGED ➡️ LPC 46.0%,CPC 34.0%,NDP 9.0%,BQ 7.0%,PPC 1.0% https://www.allpollscanada.com/pollster/abacus-data?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ca&utm_content=ca-431 view post
- allpollscanada.bsky.social #Poll Abacus Data (vs previous poll): UP ⬆️ 1.0 points: CPC 34.0%,NDP 9.0% DOWN ⬇️ 1.0 points: LPC 46.0%,GPC 2.0% UNCHANGED ➡️ BQ 7.0%,PPC 1.0% https://www.allpollscanada.com/pollster/abacus-data?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ca&utm_content=ca-327 view post
- allpollscanada.bsky.social #Poll Abacus Data (vs previous poll): UP ⬆️ 2.0 points: LPC 47.0% ⬆️ 1.0 points: GPC 3.0% DOWN ⬇️ 2.0 points: CPC 33.0% ⬇️ 1.0 points: NDP 8.0% UNCHANGED ➡️ BQ 7.0%,PPC 1.0% https://www.allpollscanada.com view post
- allpollscanada.bsky.social #Poll Abacus Data (vs previous poll): UP ⬆️ 3.0 points: LPC 45.0% DOWN ⬇️ 2.0 points: GPC 2.0% ⬇️ 1.0 points: NDP 9.0%,BQ 7.0%,PPC 1.0% UNCHANGED ➡️ CPC 35.0% https://www.allpollscanada.com view post