2011 federal election

Held on 2011-05-02. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Conservative Party of Canada	39.6%
New Democratic Party	30.6%
Liberal Party of Canada	18.9%
Bloc Québécois	6.0%
Green Party of Canada	3.9%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Ipsos

2011-04-28

1.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Democratic Party	33.0%	30.6%	+2.4 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	38.0%	39.6%	-1.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	18.0%	18.9%	-0.9 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.0%	3.9%	+0.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	6.0%	6.0%	0.0 percentage points

Angus Reid

2011-04-29

1.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	37.0%	39.6%	-2.6 percentage points
New Democratic Party	33.0%	30.6%	+2.4 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.0%	3.9%	+0.1 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	19.0%	18.9%	+0.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	6.0%	6.0%	0.0 percentage points

Nanos Research

2011-05-01

1.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	37.1%	39.6%	-2.5 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	20.5%	18.9%	+1.6 percentage points
New Democratic Party	31.6%	30.6%	+1.0 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	5.7%	6.0%	-0.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	3.8%	3.9%	-0.1 percentage points

Harris-Decima

2011-05-01

1.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	36.0%	39.6%	-3.6 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	6.0%	3.9%	+2.1 percentage points
New Democratic Party	30.0%	30.6%	-0.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	19.0%	18.9%	+0.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	6.0%	6.0%	0.0 percentage points

Léger

2011-04-28

1.4 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	36.0%	39.6%	-3.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	21.0%	18.9%	+2.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	7.0%	6.0%	+1.0 percentage points
New Democratic Party	31.0%	30.6%	+0.4 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.0%	3.9%	+0.1 percentage points

Abacus Data

2011-04-29

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Canada	7.0%	3.9%	+3.1 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	37.0%	39.6%	-2.6 percentage points
New Democratic Party	32.0%	30.6%	+1.4 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	7.0%	6.0%	+1.0 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	18.0%	18.9%	-0.9 percentage points

Forum Research

2011-05-01

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	36.0%	39.6%	-3.6 percentage points
New Democratic Party	33.0%	30.6%	+2.4 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	6.0%	3.9%	+2.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	5.0%	6.0%	-1.0 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	19.0%	18.9%	+0.1 percentage points

EKOS

2011-05-01

2.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	33.9%	39.6%	-5.7 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	6.0%	3.9%	+2.1 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	21.0%	18.9%	+2.1 percentage points
New Democratic Party	31.2%	30.6%	+0.6 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	6.4%	6.0%	+0.4 percentage points

Environics

2011-04-21

2.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Democratic Party	25.0%	30.6%	-5.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	22.0%	18.9%	+3.1 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	6.0%	3.9%	+2.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	7.0%	6.0%	+1.0 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	39.0%	39.6%	-0.6 percentage points

COMPAS

2011-04-29

2.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	46.0%	39.6%	+6.4 percentage points
New Democratic Party	26.0%	30.6%	-4.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	17.0%	18.9%	-1.9 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	7.0%	6.0%	+1.0 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.0%	3.9%	+0.1 percentage points

Innovative Research

2011-04-25

3.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Democratic Party	23.9%	30.6%	-6.7 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	24.9%	18.9%	+6.0 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	5.3%	3.9%	+1.4 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	38.4%	39.6%	-1.2 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	6.4%	6.0%	+0.4 percentage points

TNS Canada

2011-04-08

6.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Democratic Party	18.0%	30.6%	-12.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	25.0%	18.9%	+6.1 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	9.0%	3.9%	+5.1 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	36.0%	39.6%	-3.6 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	9.0%	6.0%	+3.0 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.