2015 federal election

Held on 2015-10-19. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Liberal Party of Canada	39.5%
Conservative Party of Canada	31.9%
New Democratic Party	19.7%
Bloc Québécois	4.7%
Green Party of Canada	3.4%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Nanos Research

2015-10-18

0.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	30.5%	31.9%	-1.4 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.6%	3.4%	+1.2 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	5.5%	4.7%	+0.8 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	39.1%	39.5%	-0.4 percentage points
New Democratic Party	19.7%	19.7%	0.0 percentage points

Forum Research

2015-10-18

0.9 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	30.0%	31.9%	-1.9 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	6.0%	4.7%	+1.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	40.0%	39.5%	+0.5 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	3.0%	3.4%	-0.4 percentage points
New Democratic Party	20.0%	19.7%	+0.3 percentage points

Ipsos

2015-10-17

1.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Democratic Party	22.0%	19.7%	+2.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	38.0%	39.5%	-1.5 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	31.0%	31.9%	-0.9 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	4.0%	4.7%	-0.7 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.0%	3.4%	+0.6 percentage points

Mainstreet Research

2015-10-15

1.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Canada	5.0%	3.4%	+1.6 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	38.0%	39.5%	-1.5 percentage points
New Democratic Party	21.0%	19.7%	+1.3 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	33.0%	31.9%	+1.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	4.0%	4.7%	-0.7 percentage points

EKOS

2015-10-18

1.4 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Party of Canada	35.8%	39.5%	-3.7 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	5.6%	3.4%	+2.2 percentage points
New Democratic Party	20.4%	19.7%	+0.7 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	4.9%	4.7%	+0.2 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	31.9%	31.9%	0.0 percentage points

Léger

2015-10-16

1.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Democratic Party	22.0%	19.7%	+2.3 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	30.0%	31.9%	-1.9 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	38.0%	39.5%	-1.5 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	6.0%	4.7%	+1.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.0%	3.4%	+0.6 percentage points

Angus Reid

2015-10-16

1.9 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Party of Canada	35.0%	39.5%	-4.5 percentage points
New Democratic Party	22.0%	19.7%	+2.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	5.0%	3.4%	+1.6 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	31.0%	31.9%	-0.9 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	5.0%	4.7%	+0.3 percentage points

Innovative Research

2015-10-11

2.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Canada	6.0%	3.4%	+2.6 percentage points
New Democratic Party	22.0%	19.7%	+2.3 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	30.0%	31.9%	-1.9 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	3.0%	4.7%	-1.7 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	38.0%	39.5%	-1.5 percentage points

Abacus Data

2015-10-06

3.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Party of Canada	32.0%	39.5%	-7.5 percentage points
New Democratic Party	24.0%	19.7%	+4.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	5.0%	3.4%	+1.6 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	33.0%	31.9%	+1.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	4.0%	4.7%	-0.7 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.