Latest poll: Angus Reid, 5 days ago

2025 federal election

Held on 2025-04-28. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party Share (%)
Liberal Party of Canada 43.8%
Conservative Party of Canada 41.3%
Bloc Québécois 6.3%
New Democratic Party 6.3%
Green Party of Canada 1.2%
People's Party of Canada 0.7%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster Final poll Days before Parties scored Difference
Mainstreet Research 2025-04-27 1 6 0.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 41.0% 41.3% -0.3 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 44.0% 43.8% +0.2 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Liaison Strategies 2025-04-27 1 6 0.4 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Party of Canada 43.0% 43.8% -0.8 percentage points
New Democratic Party 7.0% 6.3% +0.7 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 41.0% 41.3% -0.3 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Angus Reid 2025-04-26 2 5 0.6 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 40.0% 41.3% -1.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.0% 6.3% +0.7 percentage points
New Democratic Party 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 44.0% 43.8% +0.2 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Kolosowski Strategies 2025-04-19 9 6 0.7 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Party of Canada 42.0% 43.8% -1.8 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 42.0% 41.3% +0.7 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Research Co. 2025-04-27 1 6 0.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 39.0% 41.3% -2.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
New Democratic Party 7.0% 6.3% +0.7 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 44.0% 43.8% +0.2 percentage points
Nanos Research 2025-04-27 1 6 0.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 7.8% 6.3% +1.5 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 39.9% 41.3% -1.4 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 42.6% 43.8% -1.2 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 1.9% 1.2% +0.7 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.1% 0.7% +0.4 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.4% 6.3% +0.1 percentage points
Pallas Data 2025-04-26 2 6 0.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 38.8% 41.3% -2.5 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.3% 1.2% +1.1 percentage points
New Democratic Party 7.3% 6.3% +1.0 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 43.2% 43.8% -0.6 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 0.9% 0.7% +0.2 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.4% 6.3% +0.1 percentage points
Cardinal Research 2025-04-23 5 5 1.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 39.0% 41.3% -2.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.0% 6.3% +0.7 percentage points
New Democratic Party 7.0% 6.3% +0.7 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 44.0% 43.8% +0.2 percentage points
Forum Research 2025-04-27 1 6 1.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 39.0% 41.3% -2.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party 8.0% 6.3% +1.7 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 43.0% 43.8% -0.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Léger 2025-04-25 3 6 1.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 39.0% 41.3% -2.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party 8.0% 6.3% +1.7 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 43.0% 43.8% -0.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Ipsos 2025-04-26 2 6 1.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 38.0% 41.3% -3.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party 9.0% 6.3% +2.7 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 42.0% 43.8% -1.8 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
EKOS 2025-04-27 1 6 1.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 37.5% 41.3% -3.8 percentage points
New Democratic Party 9.2% 6.3% +2.9 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 4.4% 6.3% -1.9 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 0.7% +1.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 43.6% 43.8% -0.2 percentage points
MQO Research 2025-04-26 2 6 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 10.0% 6.3% +3.7 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 38.0% 41.3% -3.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 3.0% 1.2% +1.8 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 5.0% 6.3% -1.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 43.0% 43.8% -0.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 1.0% 0.7% +0.3 percentage points
YouGov 2025-04-25 3 6 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 10.0% 6.3% +3.7 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 39.0% 41.3% -2.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 42.0% 43.8% -1.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 0.7% +1.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 5.0% 6.3% -1.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Abacus Data 2025-04-27 1 6 1.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 10.0% 6.3% +3.7 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 41.0% 43.8% -2.8 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 39.0% 41.3% -2.3 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 3.0% 0.7% +2.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 1.0% 1.2% -0.2 percentage points
Pollara 2025-04-24 4 6 2.0 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 10.0% 6.3% +3.7 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 38.0% 41.3% -3.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 41.0% 43.8% -2.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 0.7% +1.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
Deltapoll 2025-04-09 19 6 2.3 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Conservative Party of Canada 37.0% 41.3% -4.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 41.0% 43.8% -2.8 percentage points
New Democratic Party 9.0% 6.3% +2.7 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 3.0% 1.2% +1.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 0.7% +1.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.0% 6.3% +0.7 percentage points
Focaldata 2025-04-23 5 6 2.4 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 10.7% 6.3% +4.4 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 37.5% 41.3% -3.8 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 40.5% 43.8% -3.3 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.4% 0.7% +1.7 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.1% 1.2% +0.9 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.5% 6.3% +0.2 percentage points
Innovative Research 2025-04-26 2 6 2.5 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 11.0% 6.3% +4.7 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 37.0% 41.3% -4.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 41.0% 43.8% -2.8 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 3.0% 1.2% +1.8 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 2.0% 0.7% +1.3 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 6.0% 6.3% -0.3 percentage points
JL Partners 2025-04-16 12 6 2.8 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
Liberal Party of Canada 39.0% 43.8% -4.8 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 37.0% 41.3% -4.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party 10.0% 6.3% +3.7 percentage points
People's Party of Canada 3.0% 0.7% +2.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 2.0% 1.2% +0.8 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 7.0% 6.3% +0.7 percentage points
Empirical Intelligence 2025-04-07 21 5 2.9 percentage points
Party Poll Result Difference
New Democratic Party 12.0% 6.3% +5.7 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada 36.0% 41.3% -5.3 percentage points
Green Party of Canada 3.0% 1.2% +1.8 percentage points
Bloc Québécois 5.0% 6.3% -1.3 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada 44.0% 43.8% +0.2 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.