2006 federal election

Held on 2006-01-23. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
Conservative Party of Canada	36.3%
Liberal Party of Canada	30.2%
New Democratic Party	17.5%
Bloc Québécois	10.5%
Green Party of Canada	4.5%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Nanos Research

2006-01-22

0.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Canada	5.6%	4.5%	+1.1 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	36.4%	36.3%	+0.1 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	30.1%	30.2%	-0.1 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	10.6%	10.5%	+0.1 percentage points
New Democratic Party	17.4%	17.5%	-0.1 percentage points

Léger

2006-01-17

1.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Conservative Party of Canada	38.0%	36.3%	+1.7 percentage points
Liberal Party of Canada	29.0%	30.2%	-1.2 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	11.0%	10.5%	+0.5 percentage points
New Democratic Party	17.0%	17.5%	-0.5 percentage points

Decima Research

2006-01-15

1.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Party of Canada	27.0%	30.2%	-3.2 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	37.0%	36.3%	+0.7 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	11.0%	10.5%	+0.5 percentage points
New Democratic Party	18.0%	17.5%	+0.5 percentage points

EKOS

2006-01-20

1.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Party of Canada	26.9%	30.2%	-3.3 percentage points
New Democratic Party	19.5%	17.5%	+2.0 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	11.5%	10.5%	+1.0 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	37.1%	36.3%	+0.8 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.6%	4.5%	+0.1 percentage points

Strategic Counsel

2006-01-22

1.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Party of Canada	27.0%	30.2%	-3.2 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	6.0%	4.5%	+1.5 percentage points
New Democratic Party	19.0%	17.5%	+1.5 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	37.0%	36.3%	+0.7 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	11.0%	10.5%	+0.5 percentage points

Ipsos

2006-01-22

1.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Liberal Party of Canada	27.0%	30.2%	-3.2 percentage points
Conservative Party of Canada	38.0%	36.3%	+1.7 percentage points
Bloc Québécois	12.0%	10.5%	+1.5 percentage points
New Democratic Party	19.0%	17.5%	+1.5 percentage points
Green Party of Canada	4.0%	4.5%	-0.5 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.